Two Leon Counties — the fire decision on one page

Bottom line

Same service on October 1st, 2028 cannot be bought at any price — that day the constraint is the calendar. Every year after it, the constraint is the money. Finding 11 →

I asked in July what it would cost the County to run its own fire department, where the money would come from, and what happens to the fee, the ISO rating and homeowners insurance. Nobody answered, so I answered it from the public record. On October 1st, 2028, 10,678 homes in the unincorporated county fall outside five road miles of a responding fire station — 96.9% of them within a mile of the city limit. Four firefighters must be on scene before anyone may lawfully enter a burning house: about 10–14 minutes today because a City engine usually brings them, about 24 on the stations the County is left with. Standing the same service up alone runs about $30M a year against the $11.8M we pay now — roughly 39 cents on the dollar — and Fund 145 carries $12,598,661 for FY2029. After that date every path except a signed agreement runs through buying service from Tallahassee at whatever price it sets: the County is about to be a buyer with one seller and a published deadline, and the buildings everyone is fighting over cover just 1.4% of the homes at stake.

The next decisionProposed: Tuesday, October 27th, 2026Leon County’s fire services workshop. The Board reviews its consultants’ data and settles how the unincorporated area will be covered. Everything in this document is aimed at that room — and the gate that closes first, the academy, closes in late 2027.What the Board decides →There is a solutionAbout $24 a household a yearThe County can start it alone — it does not need the City to agree to anything. And changing how the fee is charged collects the same total while lowering the bill in four of the five districts: a District 1 household goes from $223 to $182.Read it first →

Scenario · one dot is one home

You are here · 10 minutesThe short readThe bottom line, the map, the eleven findings in one sentence each, and the recommendation. Click any finding to open it in full.Start below ↓The long form · my reportTwo Leon CountiesThe same eleven findings in full, written from a county resident’s chair, with what I would do and why.Open the report →The companion · neutralWhat the County askedThe twelve items of RFP BC-2026-003, answered one by one from public records, in the County’s own order.Open the companion →

Who loses

10,678

homes lose their fire station on October 1st, 2028 — 9,648 parcels, $2.73B of property

D1 1,793 · D2 1,946 · D3 1,853 · D4 2,133 · D5 2,953

Paper §4.1 → measured

1,444

of them are mobile homes — 13.5% of the affected units, 2.1% of the affected value

units 13.5%

value 2.1%

Figure 2b → measured

1,373 of 1,444

of the affected mobile homes sit in three zones — Woodville, Lake Munson and Fort Braden

S Monroe · Station 3 930

W Pensacola · Station 4 443

Figure 2 → measured

How far

96.9%

are within a mile of the city limit — orphaned by a boundary, not by distance

≤ 1 mile 96.9%

≤ ½ mile 74.4%

Paper §4.1 → measured

1.4%

of the homes at stake sit behind the buildings in dispute; the other 98.6% sit behind stations that stay City property

stations that stay City 98.6%

the disputed six 1.4%

Paper §4.7 → measured

5 road miles

is the threshold that moves — after separation the median crossing home is 6.54 road miles from the nearest responding station, p90 7.73

median after 6.54 mi

p90 after 7.73 mi

Paper §3.2 → measured

Who pays

$2.03 · 52¢

per $1,000 of market value — District 1 against District 4 on the same flat fee, each district's own share of the bill against its share of the roll

Districts 1 and 2's share of a flat bill, against their share of the value it protects — the flat charge is regressive

of the flat bill 29.3%

of the taxable value 11.9%

Paper §4.10 → measured

$223 → $182

a District 1 household under a revenue-neutral square-foot tier inside assessment law — the same total collected

flat per dwelling $223

square-foot tier $182

Paper §4.10 → modelled

0.500 → 0.750

mills on the EMS levy — a 50% increase decided in 13 minutes; the fund it feeds went $7.0M → $15.5M

before 0.500

after 0.750

Figure 11 → documentary

The price

$217–249M

five years of standing alone and restoring the reach — against $12,598,661 in Fund 145 for FY2029

restoring, a year $43–50M

Fund 145, FY2029 $12.6M

Figure 8 → modelled

$234 → $597

a household's year — today, against the same service standing alone

today $234

alone, same service $597

Paper §4.8 → modelled

$28–40M

four new stations, none open before 2030 — against about $2.3M to buy the six that exist

build four $28–40M

buy six ~$2.3M

Paper §4.7 → documentary

$109,995

the study the County bought — half paid ($54,997.50), and its own production holds no deliverable

paid $54,997.50

fee $109,995

Figure 15 → documentary

The clock

10–14 → ~24 min

to lawful interior entry — today against after 2028; the wait for the second engine is what moves

today 10–14 min

after 2028 ~24 min

Figure 4 → modelled

5:06 · 6:24

first unit at a structure fire, median — core city against the rural station areas (p90 7:56 against 11:02, n=509)

core city p90 7:56

rural p90 11:02

Figure 3 → measured

27.5%

of structure fires in the volunteer zones saw a volunteer unit arrive — 38 of 138 (95% CI 20.1–35.0)

a volunteer unit arrived 27.5%

it did not 72.5%

Figure 6 → measured

June 2026 · late 2027

the apparatus window closed on the City's own lead times (an engine ordered at the workshop arrives February 2029); the academy gate is the one still open

Figure 9 → documentary

The answer · ours

$3.55–3.65M

a year — Recommendation 1, inside County authority: a fourth firefighter on every county-facing engine, the volunteer programme, hydrant testing, the instrument change; +$24 a household county-wide

Recommendation 1, a year $3.55–3.65M

today, a year $11.8M

Figure 13 → ours

$0.56–1.85M

a year — Recommendation 2, the written offer: the County's 29.4% share of department-wide pay parity, which costs what six-station parity costs and reaches 277 firefighters instead of 81.5

firefighters reached 277

the six stations alone 81.5

Paper §4.11 → ours

39%

of calls in the six outlying zones saw the first unit come from an inner-city station (2,276 of 5,821, calendar 2021) — a proxy, labelled every time

inner-city first 39.1%

fire-type calls 39.2%

Figure 6 → proxy

88.1%

of the cohort four County-feasible stations recover; nine are needed for all of it ($63–90M)

four stations 88.1%

nine stations 100%

Figure 7 → modelled

The eleven findings

The whole study, in eleven sentences

Each one opens the finding in full in my report — with its figure, its sources and what would change it. The same eleven are answered in the County’s order in the companion.

Part I · What October 1st, 2028 takes away

110,678 homes10,678 homes lose their fire station on October 1st, 2028 ($2.73 billion of property).2Who paysThe same fire bill costs a District 1 home nearly four times what it costs a District 4 home.3Who they areThe flat fee falls hardest on the 1,373 mobile homes in Woodville, Lake Munson and Fort Braden.

Part II · What it costs to replace it

4The cost of going aloneStanding alone costs $597 a household against $234 today (plus $1,450–1,830 in insurance if the County does not act).5The clockFour firefighters aboard the first engine would get through a County door in about 6½ minutes, beating the 10–14 it takes today and the 24 it would take after 2028, for the same money the City already asked for.

Part III · What the County still gets to decide

6The stationsThe buildings everyone is fighting over cover 1.4% of the homes at stake (almost every home in the cohort sits behind a station that stays City property).7Water, hydrants and the ratingCity water, City hydrants — what they lose is the engine, and the paramedic on it.

Part IV · The money nobody has argued about

8How you pay for itHow the money is raised is a second decision: a square-foot tier collects the same total and lowers the bill in four of the five districts.9Nobody costed itNobody has costed the separation, on either side.10The EMS levyThe EMS levy, up 50%, decided in 13 minutes.11Not available in 2028Same service on October 1st, 2028 is not available to Leon County at any price (on its own).

No impropriety is alleged anywhere in this study, and it takes no position on whether the County should separate. Max Epstein · MAXAI LLC · independent and unpaid — built from public records, not commissioned by the County, the City or anyone else, and not the County’s commissioned study · the full source note and method are in the report · CC BY 4.0 · corrections to max.epstein@gmail.com, published with the source named, never quietly patched.